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The AVA Annual Conference is the nation’s premier veterinary event, covering all fields of veterinary science and in 2017 brought together over 920 veterinary professionals and 115 exhibitors.

We hope you will join us for the 2018 AVA Annual Conference in Brisbane, 13-18 May.    
Visit conference.ava.com.au to register.    To download a pdf file of the entire program click here.
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Monday, May 14 • 3:00pm - 3:30pm
Ross River virus forecasting

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Ross River virus (RRV) is Victoria’s most commonly reported zoonotic arbovirus. The Victorian Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) worked with modellers to refine an established RRV predictive model for Mildura local government area (LGA) and develop models for another three rural Victorian LGAs. Data from July 2005–June 2012 obtained from multiple sources, including DHHS and the Bureau of Meteorology, were used to train negative binomial regression models of monthly RRV case notifications for each LGA. Data from July 2012–June 2017 were used for model validation. Validated models included variables relating to surface water (precipitation, evapotranspiration, Murray river flows and humidity) and the El Niño cycle. An interactive application to report model results was developed and is being piloted during the 2017/18 arbovirus season as part of DHHS’ integrated arbovirus surveillance system. Models were similar despite differences in climate and RRV epidemiology across the four LGAs, lending support for expansion to additional LGAs.

Speakers
KG

Katherine Gibney

University of Melbourne, Doherty Institute


Monday May 14, 2018 3:00pm - 3:30pm
Plaza P3 Brisbane Convention and Exhibition Centre