The AVA Annual Conference is the nation’s premier veterinary event, covering all fields of veterinary science and in 2017 brought together over 920 veterinary professionals and 115 exhibitors.

We hope you will join us for the 2018 AVA Annual Conference in Brisbane, 13-18 May.    
Visit conference.ava.com.au to register.    To download a pdf file of the entire program click here.
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Monday, May 14 • 2:30pm - 3:00pm
Modelling who infected whom in outbreaks

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A number of transmission network models have recently been published that combine genomic and epidemiological data to model who infected whom in outbreaks. This research evaluates these models for their usefulness in reliably informing decision-making in future foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks on the basis that they must be capable of producing accurate robust predictions within short timeframes based on the sparse data available early in such outbreaks. First, a formal comparison was made of the performance of several published transmission network models based on a set of simulated FMD outbreaks seeded in Victoria with the Australian Animal Disease (AADIS) hybrid model together with phylogenomic simulators. Then, the best-performing of the evaluated models were implemented on real data from the 2010 outbreak of FMD in Miyazaki Prefecture in Japan. The findings from this study point to which models might reliably be used to reconstruct future FMD outbreaks and how to interpret the outputs to inform control. Further ongoing research involves extending the models to explicitly represent a more complete range of farm-type variables and within-animal diversity so they can handle next generation sequencing data.


Simon Firestone

The University of Melbourne
Simon is a Senior Lecturer in Veterinary Epidemiology and Public Health in the Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Sciences, The University of Melbourne. He coordinates the Master of Veterinary Public Health program and also teaches into the Doctor of Veterinary Medicine, and the... Read More →

Monday May 14, 2018 2:30pm - 3:00pm AEST
Plaza P3 Brisbane Convention and Exhibition Centre